Economists are far less pessimistic about our economic future than the chief financial officers of corporate America.
Just 10 percent of economists forecast a recession starting next year, according to the latest Wall Street Journal survey. That contrasts with the 50 percent of CFOs who predict a 2019 recession in Duke University’s survey.
More than half of economists polled forecast a recession to start in 2020. A quarter expect the next recession to hit in 2021. The CFO survey registered an 80 percent expectation of a recession by 2020.
Not surprisingly, economists are not fans of the trade war. Nearly half of economists surveyed said the trade fight with Beijing is the top economic risk for 2019. Financial market disruption is the top worry for a fifth of those who responded to the survey. Nearly 13 percent view a slowdown in business investment as the top risk.
The risk posed by the Fed is the top worry for just 7.3 percent. Global growth slowing down is seen as the biggest threat for just 9 percent of economists.
A separate survey by CNBC found a steep decline in economic optimism among Americans.