Fox News Poll Showing 50% Support for Impeachment Conviction at Odds with Other Polls

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 18: Michael Wille, left, and Ethan Cusey hold opposing impeachment protest signs outside of the US Capitol as members of the House of Representatives debate charging President Donald Trump with two articles of impeachment including abuse of power and obstruction of Congress on December 18, 2019 …
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The Fox News Poll released on Sunday shows 50 percent of registered voters support the conviction of President Donald Trump and his removal from office, while only 44 percent oppose conviction. This poll is at odds with other recent polls taken during the same time period on attitudes toward the Senate impeachment trial.

The six-point margin in the Fox News Poll in favor of conviction and removal stands in contrast to:

  • The six-point margin opposed to conviction and removal among registered voters in the Washington Post/ABC News Poll (51 percent to 45 percent).
  • The one-point margin in favor of conviction and removal among registered voters in the YouGovPoll (46 percent to 45 percent).
  • The two-point margin in favor of conviction and removal among registered voters in the Emerson College Poll  (51 percent to 49 percent).

Of these four recent polls, the Fox News Poll includes the heaviest sample of Democrat respondents.

The six-point margin in the poll in favor of conviction in the Fox News Poll reflects the D +6 respondent sample: 48 percent of poll respondents identified as Democrats, while 42 percent identified as Republicans, and ten percent identified as independents.

Democrats heavily favor conviction by an 84 percent to 12 percent margin. Republicans strongly oppose conviction by an 81 percent to 11 percent margin. Independents favor conviction by a 53 percent to 34 percent margin.

The Fox News Poll of 1,005 registered voters was conducted between January 19 and January 22, has a margin of error of three points, and was “conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) (formerly known as Anderson Robbins Research) and Shaw & Company Research (R).”

No additional demographic data was provided in the press release accompanying the Fox News Poll. Most polls provide standard demographic data on the poll sample, broken down by age, gender, and race or ethnicity.

While the other polls also show overwhelming support for conviction among Democrats and overwhelming opposition to conviction among Republicans, none of them show the 19-point margin in favor of conviction among independents found in the Fox News Poll.

The Washington Post/ABC News Poll of 1,004 adults conducted between January 20 and January 23 shows that 49 percent oppose the removal of President Trump from office, while 47 percent support removal. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

The Washington Post/ABC News Poll had a D+3 respondent sample: 27 percent Democrat, 24 percent Republican, and 49 percent independent or other.

Democrats heavily favor conviction by an 83 percent to 14 percent margin. Republicans strongly opposed conviction by an 88 percent to nine percent margin. Independents opposed conviction by a 51 percent to 42 percent margin.

The margin opposing the removal of President Trump from office is even larger among the 880 registered voters included in the Washington Post/ABC News Poll: 51 percent oppose the conviction of the president, while 45 percent support conviction and removal.

The YouGov Poll of 1,619 adults conducted between January 21 and January 22 shows that 42 percent support the removal of President Trump from office, while 41 percent oppose it. (The margin is the same in the smaller group of 1,200 registered voters among the 1,619 adult respondents: 46 percent support impeachment, while 45 percent oppose it.)

The YouGov Poll has a D +0, R +0 respondent sample: 28 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican, and 43 percent independent.

Democrats heavily favored conviction by a 77 percent to 12 percent margin. Republicans strongly opposed conviction by an 83 percent to ten percent margin. Independents opposed conviction by a 51 percent to 42 percent margin.

The Emerson College Poll of 1,128 registered voters conducted between January 21 and 23 shows that 51 percent support the removal of President Trump from office in the Senate impeachment trial, while 49 percent oppose removal. The poll has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

In contrast to the D+6 respondent sample used in the Fox News Poll, the Emerson College Poll had a D+2.7 respondent sample: 36.7 percent were registered Democrats, 34 percent were registered Republicans, and 29.3 percent were registered independents.

Democrats heavily favor conviction by an 82 percent to 17 percent margin. Republicans strongly oppose conviction by a 78 percent to 21 percent margin. Independents narrowly favor conviction by a 53 percent to 47 percent margin.

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