President Trump and Joe Biden (D) are tied in the battleground state of Floria, according to a Trafalgar Group poll released this week.
The survey, taken June 29 – July 2, 2020, among 1,072 likely general election voters, showed the president and Democrat Party’s presumptive nominee tied in the Sunshine State with 45.9 percent each. Slightly more than five percent of voters selected a third party candidate, and 2.8 percent indicated they are undecided:
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattleGroundState #Florida #poll conducted Jun 29 – Jul 2 shows race tied with: 45.9% @JoeBiden, 45.9% @realDonaldTrump, 5.4% Other Party, & 2.8% Und. See Report: https://t.co/GbdOtZlotj pic.twitter.com/1xswqj1l7l
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) July 4, 2020
Female respondents comprised a greater share than male respondents, 54.4 percent to 45.6 percent. This is notable, as Biden tends to fare better among female voters.
The youngest demographic, those 18-24, made up the smallest share of respondents at 6.2 percent. Those 25-34 made up 13.5 percent of the responses, followed by 35-44 (12.3 percent), 45-64 (37.8 percent), and 65 and older (30.2 percent).
A greater number of polls in the summer of 2016 showed Clinton leading Trump in the battleground state, although some fell in his favor.
A CBS News/YouGov poll taken at the end of June 2016 showed Clinton up by three, as did a Bay News 9/SurveyUSA poll, which showed Trump’s challenger up by four. However, a Gravis survey showed Trump and Clinton tied, followed by Quinnipiac and JMC Analytics surveys, showing Trump up by three and five, respectively.
Trafalgar Group’s final Florida poll ahead of the election showed Trump up by four, and the RealClearPolitics average fell in his column by less than half a percentage point. Trump went on to defeat Clinton in Florida by 1.2 percent.