Poll: Majority of Joe Biden Voters Say They Have Already Cast Their Ballot

A voter drops his ballot for the 2020 US elections into an official ballot drop box at the Los Angeles County Registrar in Norwalk, California on October 19, 2020. - Voter turnout is ten times higher than in 2016 in California according the Secretary of State Alex Padilla as over …
FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images

A majority of Joe Biden (D) supporters say they have already cast their ballots, while just a quarter of President Trump supporters have done the same, a Change Research/CNBC Poll released this week found.

Fifty-three percent of Biden supporters have already cast their ballot, either via mail or in early voting. In comparison, 25 percent of Trump voters say they have already cast their ballots — something that could explain the Democrats’ general lead in total ballots cast in key swing states, such as Florida.

In the Sunshine State — the crucial battleground state that Trump secured by less than two percent four years ago — Democrats lead Republicans in total ballots cast, reporting a 427,518 advantage as of Friday morning. Data for the Florida Division of Elections shows that the Democrats’ lead is entirely due to the volume of those who have already cast their ballots by mail, reporting 1,610,564 to the Republicans’ 1,041,525. However, Republicans are cutting into the Democrats’ overall lead as early voting continues. They are outpacing Democrats on that front, casting 641,324 ballots to the Democrats’ 499,802.

Regardless of when ballots are cast, the survey found enthusiasm running high across the board, with 92 percent of battleground voters indicating that they are “extremely motivated to vote.” Ninety-one percent said the same nationally.

Change Research said:

It is hard to understate enthusiasm for voting this year. A massive 92% of battleground voters and 91% of voters nationally report they are ‘extremely motivated to vote’ in the election, giving a 10 on a 0 to 10 scale. Most of the voters who have already voted are the most highly motivated: 95% of those who have already voted in the battleground are ‘extremely motivated’ while 90% of those who have not yet voted are 10s. A large minority of our respondents report having already voted. Nationally, 53% of Biden voters report having voted already compared to just 25% of Trump voters.

According to the survey, 94 percent of Trump voters in battleground states said they are “extremely motivated” to vote, compared to 93 percent of Biden voters who said the same.

Despite that, the survey found Biden leading in several battleground states:

  • +6 in Arizona (51 to 45)
  • +5 in Florida (50 to 45)
  • +7 in Michigan (51 to 44)
  • +3 in North Carolina (50 to 47)
  • +2 in Pennsylvania (49 to 47)
  • +8 in Wisconsin (52 to 44)

The battleground survey, taken October 16-19, among 2,949 likely voters, has a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percent. The national survey, taken October 17-18 among 2,711 likely voters, has a margin of error of +/-1.88 percent.


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